Article written by Matty Reiss, March 16th

Tornado Season 2026

The United States is no stranger to violent weather, but 2026 has opened with a ferocity that has left communities shattered and meteorologists closely watching the skies. From the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes, tornadoes have already carved paths of destruction across multiple states in just the first two and a half months of the year. What was expected to be a near-average tornado season has instead delivered devastating outbreaks well ahead of the traditional spring peak, claiming lives, destroying homes, and reminding the nation that no community is ever truly safe from nature's most violent storms. With spring still arriving, experts warn that the worst could still be ahead and that the lessons of January through March 2026 must not be forgotten. According to preliminary data, tornado activity through early March has run above the historical norm. The 1991–2020 average calls for roughly 35 tornadoes in each of January and February, climbing to about 80 in March. January 2026 came in below average with just 21 confirmed tornadoes, but February bounced back with 47, above the historical average, driven by a significant outbreak of weak tornadoes along the Gulf Coast on February 14–15 and another flare-up in southern Illinois and Indiana on February 19. Then came March, and with it, the full fury of an early tornado season.

The March 5–10 Outbreak: A Historic and Deadly Week

The most consequential severe weather event of the year so far unfolded across a six-day period from March 5 to 10, producing at least 10 significant tornadoes rated EF2 or higher across six states, killing 12 people and injuring more than 144 others. The outbreak unfolded in two distinct waves, with the first striking Oklahoma and Michigan between March 5 and 7 and a second, even more violent wave hitting Indiana and Illinois on March 10. The outbreak began on the evening of March 5 when a powerful supercell developed across central Oklahoma. A mother and daughter from Fairview, Oklahoma, were killed when an EF2 tornado struck their vehicle near U.S. Highway 60 in Major County. In the days that followed, additional tornadoes swept through Beggs and the northern Tulsa area, tearing roofs from a middle school and leaving thousands without electricity. Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt declared a state of emergency for several affected counties. On March 6, the outbreak's most dramatic chapter unfolded in southern Michigan, where a lone supercell formed near the Indiana-Michigan state line and tracked northeast along a stalled warm front. The storm produced a series of confirmed tornadoes through Cass, St. Joseph, and Branch counties, including a particularly dangerous EF2 that tore through Three Rivers, striking a Menards store and a nearby U-Haul facility. Three Rivers Health Hospital was hit with a devastating EF3 multi-vortex tornado near Union City with winds estimated at 160 mph, the strongest tornado to strike Michigan in nearly 50 years. Three people were killed in the Union City area, including a 12-year-old boy, and 12 others were injured. Governor Gretchen Whitmer declared a state of emergency for the affected counties. The outbreak's second wave on March 10 produced what may become the defining meteorological event of the year: an EF5 tornado in eastern Indiana, only the second tornado to reach that maximum rating anywhere in the United States since 2013. Damage assessment teams documented a 14.6-mile path of destruction with winds exceeding 200 mph. Meanwhile, a long-track EF3 in Kankakee, Illinois, damaged more than 500 buildings and killed one person before crossing into Indiana, where it struck the community of Lake Village, killing two more. Reports of hailstones five to six inches in diameter, potentially a new Illinois state record, accompanied the supercell.

An Early and Unusual Start to the Season

What makes 2026's tornado activity so notable is not just its intensity but also its timing. Significant tornado outbreaks in early March, well before the traditional April-through-June peak season, are historically rare. The EF3 that struck Michigan on March 6 was the earliest intense tornado on record for that state, beating the previous benchmark by a wide margin. An EF5 occurring on March 10 is virtually unheard of; meteorologists noted that such powerful tornadoes are almost exclusively confined to the late spring and early summer months when atmospheric conditions are most favorable. The early-season violence appears to be driven by unusually strong wind shear, high storm-relative helicity, and elevated atmospheric instability, conditions that would normally be expected weeks later. Forecasters have pointed to large-scale climate patterns, including a La Niña influence and particular ocean temperature configurations in the Pacific, as possible contributors to the setup that allowed spring-like severe weather to develop so aggressively in the heart of winter. Analogous years frequently cited by forecasters include 2023, 2009, 2001, and 1985, each of which featured a front-loaded severe weather pattern with a relatively quieter late spring. The nocturnal nature of several of the most dangerous tornadoes has also drawn attention. Nighttime tornadoes strike when most people are asleep and less likely to receive or heed warnings, which dramatically increases the danger to life. Multiple tornadoes during the March 5–7 outbreak struck in the predawn hours, compounding the difficulty for emergency managers and residents trying to respond in time. Meteorologists and emergency management officials have used the early 2026 activity to stress the importance of having a weather alert plan that accounts for overnight threats.

What the Rest of 2026 May Bring

Despite the alarming start, forecasters are not predicting an unprecedented tornado year overall. AccuWeather's long-range outlook projects between 1,050 and 1,250 tornadoes across the United States for all of 2026, close to the historical average of 1,225, and well below the 1,544 preliminary reports recorded in 2025. However, that statistical projection offers cold comfort to communities already reeling from destruction, and forecasters are careful to emphasize that a near-average annual count does not preclude catastrophic individual events. The seasonal forecast suggests a front-loaded pattern, with elevated tornado risk concentrated in March and early April before conditions become relatively quieter across many areas by May. The highest tornado risk areas as spring progresses are expected to shift from the Southern Plains and Mid-South in March toward the central Plains, stretching from central Texas to eastern Nebraska. By May, following the traditional northward migration of severe weather. The highest hail risk through the season is forecast from Texas to Alabama, with a secondary hotspot spanning Iowa, northern Missouri, eastern Nebraska, and northeastern Kansas. As of mid-March, another significant outbreak appears to be unfolding. A massive storm system has prompted tornado watches stretching from the Gulf Coast to the southern Great Lakes, with more than 16 million people under active tornado watches and forecasters warning that some twisters could reach EF2 intensity or greater. Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee face the highest risk of strong supercell tornadoes through the evening hours, with the threat continuing into Monday across portions of the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Meteorologist Alex Duffus of AccuWeather captured the season's dual nature well: while overall tornado counts may trend lower than last year, the atmosphere still favors repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and dangerous flash flooding. The year 2026 has already proven, in its opening weeks, that it only takes one violent tornado striking a vulnerable community to turn a statistically ordinary season into a defining disaster. As spring takes hold across the country, millions of Americans are being urged to review their severe weather plans, identify safe shelter locations, and remain vigilant, because in the world of tornadoes, averages offer no guarantee.

Citations: 

"2026 Tornado Outbreak Sequence, March 5–10." Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 2026.

"2026 Tornado Season." Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 2026.

"Tornadoes 2026 Forecast: Where Is the Risk This Spring?" AccuWeather, 2026.

"Tornado Outbreak Kills Multiple in Oklahoma and Michigan." CNN, 6 Mar. 2026.

National Weather Service. "Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena." National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce, 2026.

"Michigan Tornado Outbreak, March 6, 2026." DisasterAWARE, Pacific Disaster Center, 2026.

"2026 Severe Weather Outlook: Spring Forecast." iWeatherNet, 2026.

"Tornado Watches Issued Across Gulf Coast to Great Lakes." National Weather Service, NOAA, Mar. 2026.