Lamplight March 2 2026

Article written by Avalon Stewart, March 2nd 2026

The B(oil)ing Point

Oil Price Surge

Today, the price of oil has surged and U.S. crude oil soared more than 7%, while Brent, the international oil benchmark, surged 9%. The main U.S. crude oil market opened at $75 per barrel in the first trading activity since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, killing Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering retaliatory attacks on several oil tankers traversing the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20 percent of the world’s waterborne crude oil passes.

Michael Gonzalez/AP

How long prices remain high will depend on what the United States, Israel and Iran do next. Even if the disruption is brief, it will almost certainly make energy more expensive worldwide. Higher oil prices raise the prospect of costlier gasoline for U.S. drivers as well as increased prices for other goods at a time when people in many countries have been stung by inflation. President Donald Trump said Monday at a White House event that the U.S. airstrike could last for a month or more. "Whatever the time is, it's OK," Trump said. "Right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that. We'll do it."

Meanwhile, Iran’s security chief said it would not negotiate with the U.S., The Wall Street Journal reported. More than 500 Iranians have been killed, with more casualties in Lebanon. Israel launched strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after the Iran-backed militant group fired its own rockets overnight in retaliation over the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

A key focus was the Strait of Hormuz at the southern end of the Persian Gulf, through which 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. Tanker traffic dropped sharply as satellite navigation systems were disrupted, data and analytics firm Kpler said on X. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Center reported attacks on several vessels in the area on either side of the strait and warned of elevated electronic interference to systems that show where ships are.

In the short term, global crude reserves-including potentially the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve-will be able to make up for any major disruption. And U.S. oil companies can likely ramp up production within six to nine months, especially if incentivized by high prices. But you might be wondering why the gas prices haven’t been exponentially higher than the usual high; one reason is that markets have recently been oversupplied with oil, allowing countries to fill their stockpiles. China, in particular, has plenty of oil in storage both on land and floating offshore. That means the world is well-positioned to weather a short-term disruption in oil flows.

In the week after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, oil prices climbed around 20 percent. But the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline rose only about 3 percent in that time, according to AAA motor club data. It was not until the next week that drivers started to see significantly higher gasoline prices.

Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images

The price of crude is the single largest factor in how much U.S. drivers pay for fuel which is a highly political issue ahead of midterm Congressional elections. And higher oil prices are usually felt at the pump within a couple of weeks at most. This is the second time in two months that the United States has taken military action in an oil-rich country. Prices barely moved in January after American forces captured Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, partly because that country accounts for less than 1% of the world’s oil supply.

Avalon Stewart

Avalon is from Mount Vernon, Washington. She is a Freshman at Whitman College and plans to major in Psychology and Politics. In high school she competed in Speech and Debate all four years and even was state champ in Congressional Debate. She is passionate about politics and the process of delivering news that people can trust.

Lead editor for The Lamplight

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